Long Term Information Technology Forecasting

Yogi Berra once said, "Predictions can be tricky,technologies, where increasing capabilities enable
especially when you're talking about the future."more complex applications and declining costs
And looking forward is certainly more perilousdrive a positive innovation loop, lowering the cost
than using our 20-20 hindsight. However, theof innovation and enabling wider learning and
future of rapidly converging technologies is not socontributions from more people, thus sustaining
complex and uncertain that a few reasonablethe technology trends."
speculations can't be discerned.The growth of a new technological capability
The truth about the biggest scientifictypically follows an S-shaped curve which follows
breakthroughs is that they often come when athree stages. First a slow initial growth allows the
scientist takes a leap of imagination out of what isnew technology to prove its superiority over
probable into what just might be possible.previous technology. Once this is demonstrated,
Scientists seek to understand their surroundsrapid growth follows. Finally, growth is limited by
through three remarkable human characteristics:technological or socioeconomic competition which
discovery, invention, and creativity.leads to an asymptotical leveling off.
Discovery is about with finding something that isThe S-shaped curve illustrates the progress of
already there - like finding a gold deposit. Inventionmany inventions such as electrical appliances. Many
is an ingenious product of a culmination of manyof the early analog signal processing devices
contributing ideas, like the invention of thedeveloped a paradigm shift which took nearly 50
telephone. On the other hand, creativity is theyears to come to practical fruition as the adoption
product of a single mind like a play byand utilization of independently powered analog
Shakespeare. Actually, there is a great deal moremachines followed an S-shaped curve. Today, the
to the scientific process, but 'seeing the biggrowth of the digital competitors is following a
picture' requires an ability to understand thesimilar pattern.
relationship between relationships.In Connections: Patterns of Discovery the
Forecasting scientific breakthroughs requires apatterns of discovery are presented that
look into the prospects of science principles,produced Moore's Law and the book explores the
technologies, and the economic incentives toquestion, "What is the software equivalent of
identify areas of strategic opportunity.Moore's Law?"
Lessons can be taken from past efforts. In aThe patterns challenge the reader to think of the
recent review of a 40 year-old forecasting study,consequences of extrapolating trends, such as,
Richard E. Albright commented on the onehow Moore's Law could reach machine intelligence,
hundred technical innovations identified as beingor retrench in the face of physical limitations.
considered very likely to be developed in the lastFrom this perspective, the book draws the 'big
third of the twentieth century. While fewer thanpicture' for the Information Revolution's
50% of the predicted innovations wereinnovations in chips, devices, software, and
considered "good and timely," Albright found thatnetworks. One goal of science is ubiquitous
the accuracy rate for the areas of computersintelligence (UI) where everyone is connected to
and communications rose to about 80%.devices with access to Artificial Intelligence (AI) -
Further, Albright concluded that "we should lookoffering what Google founder Larry Page calls
for sustained and continuing trends in underlying'perfect search.