| Yogi Berra once said, "Predictions can be | | | | underlying technologies, where increasing |
| tricky, especially when you're talking about | | | | capabilities enable more complex applications |
| the future." And looking forward is certainly | | | | and declining costs drive a positive |
| more perilous than using our 20-20 hindsight. | | | | innovation loop, lowering the cost of |
| However, the future of rapidly converging | | | | innovation and enabling wider learning and |
| technologies is not so complex and uncertain | | | | contributions from more people, thus |
| that a few reasonable speculations can't be | | | | sustaining the technology trends." |
| discerned. | | | | |
| | | | The growth of a new technological capability |
| The truth about the biggest scientific | | | | typically follows an S-shaped curve which |
| breakthroughs is that they often come when a | | | | follows three stages. First a slow initial |
| scientist takes a leap of imagination out of | | | | growth allows the new technology to prove its |
| what is probable into what just might be | | | | superiority over previous technology. Once |
| possible. Scientists seek to understand their | | | | this is demonstrated, rapid growth follows. |
| surrounds through three remarkable human | | | | Finally, growth is limited by technological |
| characteristics: discovery, invention, and | | | | or socioeconomic competition which leads to |
| creativity. | | | | an asymptotical leveling off. |
| | | | |
| Discovery is about with finding something | | | | The S-shaped curve illustrates the progress |
| that is already there - like finding a gold | | | | of many inventions such as electrical |
| deposit. Invention is an ingenious product of | | | | appliances. Many of the early analog signal |
| a culmination of many contributing ideas, | | | | processing devices developed a paradigm shift |
| like the invention of the telephone. On the | | | | which took nearly 50 years to come to |
| other hand, creativity is the product of a | | | | practical fruition as the adoption and |
| single mind like a play by Shakespeare. | | | | utilization of independently powered analog |
| Actually, there is a great deal more to the | | | | machines followed an S-shaped curve. Today, |
| scientific process, but 'seeing the big | | | | the growth of the digital competitors is |
| picture' requires an ability to understand | | | | following a similar pattern. |
| the relationship between relationships. | | | | |
| | | | In Connections: Patterns of Discovery the |
| Forecasting scientific breakthroughs requires | | | | patterns of discovery are presented that |
| a look into the prospects of science | | | | produced Moore's Law and the book explores |
| principles, technologies, and the economic | | | | the question, "What is the software |
| incentives to identify areas of strategic | | | | equivalent of Moore's Law?" |
| opportunity. | | | | |
| | | | The patterns challenge the reader to think of |
| Lessons can be taken from past efforts. In a | | | | the consequences of extrapolating trends, |
| recent review of a 40 year-old forecasting | | | | such as, how Moore's Law could reach machine |
| study, Richard E. Albright commented on the | | | | intelligence, or retrench in the face of |
| one hundred technical innovations identified | | | | physical limitations. |
| as being considered very likely to be | | | | |
| developed in the last third of the twentieth | | | | From this perspective, the book draws the |
| century. While fewer than 50% of the | | | | 'big picture' for the Information |
| predicted innovations were considered "good | | | | Revolution's innovations in chips, devices, |
| and timely," Albright found that the accuracy | | | | software, and networks. One goal of science |
| rate for the areas of computers and | | | | is ubiquitous intelligence (UI) where |
| communications rose to about 80%. | | | | everyone is connected to devices with access |
| | | | to Artificial Intelligence (AI) - offering |
| Further, Albright concluded that "we should | | | | what Google founder Larry Page calls 'perfect |
| look for sustained and continuing trends in | | | | search. |