Will Retail Chains Lose Their Dominance?

In most industrialised nations the the supply chainThe produceris now in the position where he
of goods from source toend user has changedmust be given volume orders in order
little for many years. Firstly there are thetoammortise his costs. The retailer says: I can
producers. Then the wholesaler, then the retailergive you volume, but you must giveus more
and then the customer and consumer.margin. For some producers the moment of truth
In the U.S. the supply chain has always been pulledcomes when they need totake a leap into a big
by downstream consumers.new production facility in order to keep up with
Europe had a different history where a mixturethesedemands. So, they take on a loan and
of world wars and interventionistgovernments ledexpand the business. Now they need aconstant
to supply chains that were pushed from thefix of volume business, not only to keep the
upstream end.factory going, but inorder for their business to
Certainly, the rationing of the 1940's and beyondavoid bankruptcy. Some producers who have
led to a culture of consumerswho got what theyconvertedto this high volume business have gone
were given and were thankful for small mercies.so far with it, and have partnered soclosely with
As Europe has become more affluent, consumerstheir master retailer that they simply see
have flexed their muscles anddemanded an everthemselves as anextension to the retailer and will
wider array of goods at a range of prices andnot contemplate change.
standards. It hasnow joined the U.S. and mostOthers may feel differently. They may be run by
other industrialised nations withmore indpendently-mindedbosses, or may have
consumer-ledsupply chains.kept up sales to other outlets in order to keep
A feature of this has been the trend towardssome tradegoing that is outside the sphere of the
large retail chains. Many ofthese chains haveretail chain. I am sure that someproducers want
become so large that they have virtuallyto see that pendulum start to make its way
dispensed withwholesalers, preferring instead toback, even if it isjust a little way. But what can
purchase goods directly from producers.they do? Well, things are changing out there,
Theyhave also established the so called "ownsoopportunities may arise sooner than expected.
brand". This is where theyhave dictated theFirstly, there is safety in numbers. Just ask the
product specification to the producer and toldunions, or a herd ofwilderbeest. I can see alliances
them to brandit as their own product. And theretaking shape over the next few years
is more: some of the largest chainsbetweennon-competing producers who, between
haveincreasingly got themselves involved with allthem, can offer a full range of products
aspects of the supply chain fromraw materialtoconsumers. Why can't they open their own
sourcing, packaging procurement and design, allretail outlets? Remember, the billionsmade by
aspects ofdistribution and even their suppliers'today's retail chains will no longer need to be
recruitment policies.serviced, so prices willbe very competitive and
This has resulted in a shift in the balance ofmargin healthy.
power from upstream todownstream. Now thatSecondly, there is pressure on fuel supply and
every aspect of the producer's business, includingprices. There has been arecent blip that might fall
theirall important costs, have been tied down byoff again, but most experts agree that the long
the ever inquisitive retail chain,has the pendulumtermtrend is that prices will rise. As fuel costs
swung as far as it could? We all know whatbegin to impact margins and evenproduct prices
happens to pendulumswhen they have gone asthere will be pressure to retail goods as close to
far as they can in one direction. Now, I cannottheir sourceas possible. It may even make sense
surely bethe only person who has thought aboutto sell goods directly from a producer's ownshop.
this. I am sure that directors of some ofthe largeIn the UK, local farmer's markets have taken a
producers out there must have thought tosignificant slice ofbusiness away from
themselves "how did welet this happen?". Perhapssupermarkets. I am suggesting here that this
some of the smaller producers whoseprinciple couldbe extended to more local selling
managementcan't even visit the washroomopportunities from producers and notjust farmers.
without permission from the retailer (it seems)areThirdly, there is an increasing trend - mainly driven
also thinking "enough is enough".by legislation - tore-use parts in products that are
Just think of this: who has put the capital and riskat the end of their life and to re-usepackaging.
into the very expensiveplant that is needed in aThis reverse distribution will benefit once again
production environment? Not the retailers. Whofrom havingproducers as close to consumers as
has theskilled staff including engineers andpossible and it may benefit further bycutting out
designers? Certainly not the retailers.the retailer altogether for the return of goods.
Who has detailed product knowledge within theirFinally of course, there is the internet - shopping
own spheres? Retail chains, bytheir very natureon line. Not a cashier ora shopping trolley in sight.
specialise in putting largely unskilled staff inYes, distribution infrastructure is still required,but
largebuildings with rows of shelving and a line ofremember that many bricks and mortar retailers
checkouts. They can only ever havea superficialhave still not fully got togrips with the structures
knowledge stretching accross the vast productthat are required to distribute internet sales.
ranges they sell.Theinternet gives producers a wonderful
I know I have painted a picture of pooropportunity to change the order of thingsto their
downtrodden producers that have beenconqueredadvantage and sell directly to end users.
by those nasty retailers. Firstly the retailers areWhat many large retail chains have done has
not nasty at all -they are just doing their job - sobeen breathtaking and can only beadmired. They
let's not blame them. And there will betook control of their supply chains and used their
manyproducers out there who rather like thenew influenceand power to their advantage and
status quo and don't want to rock theboat. OK,therefore to the advantage of theirshareholders.
so they don't get the kinds of profit margins theyJust remember though, that retail chains consist
would like, butthey do get volume. Though in myof unremarkablebuildings, staffed with unskilled
opinion, the reason why many producerswant tolabour and with low-tech plant. They do
leave things as they are is that they are slaves,notproduce goods (usually) and they do not own
even if they don'trealise it.any brands apart from their own.
It's a kind of drug dependancy, but with the drugTheir main asset is customer goodwill with the
being high volume sales andthe drug pusher beinglarge throughputs of customersvisiting their sites.
the retail chain. It's a familiar pattern. TheIf this throughput is threatened by high fuel prices
producer isforced to reduce costs by a retailerorbecause of alternative attractions, then these
promising higher volume in return for agreaterlarge buildings will become whiteelephants. If this
share of the margin, so the producer invests inever happens, the decline could be swift and
larger productionfacilities, faster machinery anddecisive, forthose retailers are just as addicted to
takes on more staff. This is fine until theproducertheir customers as producers are tothem.
realises that he is now dependent on the retailer.