Job Losses Tell Us It’s Going to Get Worse

There is one overriding message from the jobsbattered US housing sector with the National
bloodbath of this week.Association of Realtors reporting a 6.5% rise in
That is: this slowdown is going to be long, hardthe number of pre-owned houses sold in
and tough and things are going to worsen.December: 4.74 million unit annual rate. Economists
Indeed US brokers Merrill Lynch now says ithad expected a 4.40 million unit pace.
thinks estimates for 2009 profits for USThe US Conference Board said its index of leading
companies are still too generous, that earnings areeconomic indicators rose 0.3%: economists had
going to be lower.expected a fall of the same size.
Brokers already believe that December 2008However, the realtors' report also had the now
quarter earnings will be down 28%, so Merrillfamiliar bad news with the median national home
Lynch's warning should be seen as a pointer toprice in the US down 15.3% in December from
the future.the same month of 2007, the largest fall on
Anyone thinking it's going to be a quick exitrecord.
rebound later this year, or even in 2010, hadThe financial crisis claimed Iceland's Prime Minister
better think again.Geir Haarde who announced the resignation of his
The 100,000 job cuts that echoed around thegovernment after months of protests over
world on Monday came from retailing, cars, heavyeconomic policies that brought the country close
manufacturing, light manufacturing, technology,to bankruptcy.
finance, insurance, technology and more.A coalition of Green and leftwing parties is
On top of the cuts from the likes of BHP Billitonexpected to win the election later this year, which
the week before, Intel and Microsoft, the trail ofcould provoke tensions between the country, the
losses is mounting rapidly, day by day asbanks and the IMF. The Social Democrats will
employers, who have tried to keep staff on forform a new Government in the meantime.
as long as possible, are forced by plunging profits,But Canada will spend $US5.7 billion on
to chop and chop deeply.infrastructure over the next two years and
Companies reported badly damaged 4th quarterofficials said Canada will run budget deficits totalling
earnings in the US and Europe and used these$US53 billion over the next two years.
profit slumps as the basis for the jobs cuts:And the Norwegian government presented a
Texas Instruments, Caterpillar and ING for$US2.87 billion fiscal stimulus package to prevent a
example (it was bailed out by the Dutchsurge in unemployment. It is dipping into its
government for a second time with a deal tostate-owned wealth fund to help bolster spending,
takeover dodgy real estate assets and keepas is Singapore.
lending to the economy).But it was the toll of job losses that staggered
The IMF saw the US economy contracting 1.6%observers: construction equipment giant Caterpillar
this year, with the euro zone shrinking 2% andaxed 20,000 places worldwide to cope with
Japan 2.6%. Media reports said the Fund, later thisplunging sales. Its big Japanese rival, Komatsu
week, would reveal world growth for this yearwarned of a 15% drop in sales and a 42% plunge
0.5% at best. Next year an optimistic 3%.in profit in the year to March 31.
Overnight the Japanese economy okayed aNew York-based drug maker Pfizer announced it
modest stimulus package of about $US75 billionwould acquire its rival Wyeth for $US68 billion
and the German Cabinet signed off on a 50 billion($A104 billion), and then announced it would chop
euro package. The UK Government revealed athe combined workforces of the two companies
$US4 billion-plus assistance package for its carby 19,000, or 15%, and its own global workforce
industry.by 10%, or 8,000 jobs. It's halving dividend to help
The aim of these packages is to try and slow thefinance this big deal. Investment banks will carve
downturn and keep as many people as possible inup $US207 million from this mega-merger.
jobs.Texas Instruments reported a big fall in 4th
Companies in the US and Europe chopped morequarter profits, and plans to shed up to 3,400
than 90,000 jobs Monday that also saw thejobs. And still in technology, an American union
Iceland government collapse, General Motors chopreckons IBM, which last week reported better
more factories as sales slump, and America'sthan expected 4th quarter profits, is readying
second biggest cardboard processor collapse withitself to chop at least 2500 jobs soon. .
$US5.6 billion in debts.General Motors dropped an extra 2000 jobs at
Around 80 000 jobs were cut in the US, the resttwo US plants as it continues restructuring. US
in Europe.telecom operator Sprint Nextel said it would cut
A survey of private sector economists in the US8000 jobs, or 14% of its staff, and top US home
had bad news: they see the slump as worsening.improvement retailer Home Depot is culling 7000
(Source)employees across America.
The survey found that companies will lay offThe big Dutch financial services group, ING, has
more workers and hoard more cash in the nextobtained more help from its government to stay
12 months. A large majority of the 105alive and is sacking thousands of people, as is the
economists polled believe the country's grosshuge Philips lighting and technology group.
domestic product will continue to sink in 2009.All up, ING and Philips are shedding around 13,000
Respondents to the survey were getting morepeople from their businesses worldwide to try and
pessimistic about the macroeconomic outlook.cut costs as sales and demand slump faster than
"78% of respondents expect U.S. real GDP to beexpected.
lower in 2009 than in 2008."And Corus, the big Anglo-Dutch steelmaker is
"NABE's January 2009 Industry Survey depictscutting 3,500 jobs around the world, some 2,000
the worst business conditions since the surveyof them in Britain, due to a sharp fall in demand
began in 1982, confirming that the U.S. recessionfor steel.
deepened in the fourth quarter of 2008," saidThe company is Europe's second-largest
Sara Johnson, a NABE economist.steelmaker now owned by the Indian company,
Nearly half (47%) of surveyed economists saidTata which is struggling to keep Jaguar Landrover
overall industry demand was falling, comparedalive in Britain..
with 35% who said so in the October survey.Another major US company has collapsed: the
"Just 10% of respondents said profit marginsSmufit-Stone Container Corp, a cardboard
were rising, compared with 52% who believe theypackaging giant and one of the world’s largest
are falling. And 38% of economists said capitalpaper recyclers, has gone bust in the US with
expenses are falling, up from just 15% in October.$US5.6 billion in debt. It was unable to service
"Over half expect real GDP to fall by more thanamid a slumping economy and demand for its
one percent this year, and only three percentproducts.
project growth of over one percent.The company, which is based in the US but was
"Falling profit margins outnumbered rising marginsfounded in Ireland, filed for Chapter 11 protection
five-to-one among respondents’ firms—thein the US: besides the $US5.6 billion in debt the
worst reading since 1982.company had $US7.5 billion in assets. 24
"Job losses accelerated in the fourth quarter, andsubsidiaries or affiliates also sought protection. It
the employment outlook for the next six monthshad net sales of $US7.4 billion in 2007.(Source)
has weakened further.Smurfit-Stone, based in Chicago is North
"With market prospects deteriorating, firmsAmerica’s second- largest maker of
slammed the brakes on capital spending in thecorrugated packaging, and has 22,000 employees
fourth quarter of 2008; the percentage of firmsin the US, Canada, Mexico and Asia.
reducing capital expenditures (38%) was theIn Britain two retail chains selling shoes went bust
highest in the history of the survey."overnight and their listed owner, Stylo, was
The survey found that a majority of thosesuspended from trading.
replying said credit conditions hurt businesses, asBarratts Shoes and PriceLess became the latest
customers had less leverage to buy discretionaryBritish chains to go into administration, putting the
products. 78% of respondents said tighteningjobs of around 5,00 people at risk. The 400
credit conditions affected customers, and 52%stores in the two chains will remain open for now.
said the credit crunch directly hurt businesses inThey join fashion chains, Dolcis, Stead &
their industries.Simpson and Faith which have all gone into
Rapidly deteriorating global market conditions areadministration. Woolworths has closed, at a loss of
hammering business profits.30,000 jobs and the home improvement group,
"For the fourth consecutive quarter, reports ofMFI has failed. The UK children's retailer, Adams
falling profit margins (52% of respondents)has shut, while furniture retailer, Land of Leather
outnumbered reports of rising margins (10%). Thisis a failure.
was the worst result since the spring of 1982.And a sure sign of the damage the credit crunch
Job losses accelerated in the fourth quarter,is doing to business can be seen from the 72%
producing the worst survey result in 17 years.plunge in 4th quarter operating earnings for
Some 44% of firms cut payrolls, while only 14%American Express.
added workers.The credit card giant said quarterly profit from
 continuing operations hit $US238 million, down
"Looking ahead, 39% of companies plan to reducefrom $US858 million in the same quarter of 2007
payrolls over the next six months, while 17% plan(Source).
to increase employment. Only the services sectorAmerican Express received a $US3.4 billion from
continues to create jobs."the US Treasury's bank bailout fund earlier this
If anything, that explains why so many big andmonth as surging consumer defaults forced it to
small companies are now cutting jobs, more thanset aside more reserves and the market for
a year after the US economy officially slipped intobonds backed by credit-card debt froze.
this recession. Business conditions have becomeThe company has chopped 7,000 jobs, frozen
so fraught, thanks to the credit crunch andmanagement salaries and cut other costs to try
drought, that they have no alternative.and save $US1.8 billion a year. For the year
With US first time jobless claims running at moreearnings fell 32% to $US2.8 billion.
than half a million a week for the past twoIMPORTANT: AIR reports about financial markets
months, there's no let up in the flow of bad newsand investment products in the widest sense
for US workers, and increasingly employees inpossible. The AIR website and all its contents is
Europe and Japan.prepared for general information only, and as
US unemployment looks certain to surge fromsuch, the specific needs, investment objectives or
the December level of 7.2%, even as thousandsfinancial situation of any particular user have not
of workers stop actively searching for the fewbeen taken into consideration. Individuals should
jobs that are there.therefore talk with their financial planner or
But there was some rare good news from theadvisor before making any investment decisions.